A-League hot lines

6 hot lines for 3 matches on Saturday 24 October.

Match over 8.5 shots on target — Newcastle Jets v Macarthur FC: hit in 15 of 16 meetings between the clubs, against 62% of A-League games.
Newcastle Jets under 2.5 cards — Newcastle Jets v Macarthur FC: hit in 18 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 66% of A-League games.
Match under 4.5 cards — Western Sydney Wanderers v Auckland FC: hit in 17 of Western Sydney Wanderers’ last 20 home games, against 61% of A-League games.
Melbourne City under 5.5 corners — Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City: hit in 17 of Melbourne Victory’s last 20 home games, against 56% of A-League games.
Auckland FC win or draw — Western Sydney Wanderers v Auckland FC: hit in 17 of Auckland FC’s last 20 away games, against 57% of A-League games.
Newcastle Jets over 12.5 shots — Newcastle Jets v Macarthur FC: hit in 17 of Newcastle Jets’ last 20 home games, against 57% of A-League games.

What a hot line is

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away. It shows what has happened, not what will.

On Saturday 24 October there are 6 hot lines across 3 A-League matches. Each line is listed with how often it has hit and the league’s rate for comparison.

Questions

What is a hot line?

How are the lines ordered?

By hit rate first, so a line that hit every time comes before one that hit 17 of 20, then by price where one is listed, and then by how far above the league rate it sits.

Do hot lines predict anything?

No. They count how often a line has hit in past matches. What to make of that is up to you.