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Hot lines today

228 hot lines for 77 matches on Saturday 24 October.

  1. Match under 3.5 goals — Atletico Madrid v Deportivo: hit in 8 of 8 meetings between the clubs, against 74% of La Liga games.
  2. Match under 3.5 goals — Huddersfield v Wigan: hit in 12 of 12 meetings between the clubs, against 75% of League One games.
  3. Corinthians over 2.5 saves — Vasco da Gama v Corinthians: hit in 20 of Vasco da Gama’s last 20 home games, against 58% of Brasileirão games.
  4. Estrela Amadora under 6.5 corners — Estrela Amadora v Casa Pia: hit in 20 of Estrela Amadora’s last 20 home games, against 72% of Primeira Liga games.
  5. Match over 3.5 cards — Rayo Vallecano v Elche: hit in 8 of 8 meetings between the clubs, against 74% of La Liga games.
  6. Athletico Paranaense over 0.5 goals — Vitoria v Athletico Paranaense: hit in 9 of 9 meetings between the clubs, against 70% of Brasileirão games.
  7. Atletico Madrid most shots on target or level — Atletico Madrid v Deportivo: hit in 8 of 8 meetings between the clubs, against 56% of La Liga games.
  8. Porto over 10.5 shots — Gil Vicente v Porto: hit in 14 of 14 meetings between the clubs, against 58% of Primeira Liga games.
  9. Estrela Amadora over 10.5 shots — Estrela Amadora v Casa Pia: hit in 6 of 6 meetings between the clubs, against 58% of Primeira Liga games.
  10. St Johnstone under 4.5 shots on target — Rangers v St Johnstone: hit in 20 of Rangers’ last 20 home games, against 60% of Scottish Premiership games.
  11. Match over 20.5 shots — St Mirren v Dundee: hit in 20 of St Mirren’s last 20 home games, against 64% of Scottish Premiership games.
  12. Watford under 14.5 shots — Wolves v Watford: hit in 8 of 8 meetings between the clubs, against 67% of Championship games.
  13. Crewe over 1.5 saves — Chesterfield v Crewe: hit in 4 of 4 meetings between the clubs, against 71% of League Two games.
  14. Blackpool under 3.5 saves — Blackpool v Mansfield: hit in 4 of 4 meetings between the clubs, against 71% of League One games.
  15. Match over 4.5 saves — West Ham v Southampton: hit in 6 of 6 meetings between the clubs, against 71% of Championship games.
  16. Cambridge under 3.5 saves — Cambridge v Plymouth: hit in 4 of 4 meetings between the clubs, against 71% of League One games.
  17. Newport County under 3.5 saves — Cheltenham v Newport County: hit in 20 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 71% of League Two games.
  18. St Johnstone over 1.5 saves — Rangers v St Johnstone: hit in 12 of 12 meetings between the clubs, against 73% of Scottish Premiership games.
  19. Atletico Madrid over 2.5 shots on target — Atletico Madrid v Deportivo: hit in 8 of 8 meetings between the clubs, against 74% of La Liga games.
  20. Burton over 0.5 cards — Burton v Leyton Orient: hit in 20 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 83% of League One games.
  21. Norwich over 0.5 cards — Charlton v Norwich: hit in 20 of Charlton’s last 20 home games, against 84% of Championship games.
  22. Porto most shots — Gil Vicente v Porto: hit in 14 of 14 meetings between the clubs, against 47% of Primeira Liga games.
  23. Porto most shots or level — Gil Vicente v Porto: hit in 14 of 14 meetings between the clubs, against 53% of Primeira Liga games.
  24. Nashville SC most corners or level — CF Montreal v Nashville SC: hit in 12 of 12 meetings between the clubs, against 55% of MLS games.
  25. Philadelphia Union most shots — Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution: hit in 20 of Philadelphia Union’s last 20 home games, against 64% of MLS games.
  26. Philadelphia Union most shots or level — Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution: hit in 20 of Philadelphia Union’s last 20 home games, against 69% of MLS games.
  27. Parma under 5.5 shots on target — Lazio v Parma: hit in 12 of 12 meetings between the clubs, against 71% of Serie A games.
  28. Plymouth over 8.5 shots — Cambridge v Plymouth: hit in 12 of 12 meetings between the clubs, against 73% of League One games.
  29. Match over 4.5 saves — Vitoria v Athletico Paranaense: hit in 9 of 9 meetings between the clubs, against 73% of Brasileirão games.
  30. Swindon over 8.5 shots — Bristol Rvs v Swindon: hit in 8 of 8 meetings between the clubs, against 73% of League Two games.

What a hot line is

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away. It shows what has happened, not what will.

On Saturday 24 October there are 228 hot lines across 77 matches, most of them in the Scottish Premiership (27). Each line is listed with how often it has hit and the league’s rate for comparison.

Questions

What is a hot line?

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away.

How are the lines ordered?

By hit rate first, so a line that hit every time comes before one that hit 17 of 20, then by price where one is listed, and then by how far above the league rate it sits.

Do hot lines predict anything?

No. They count how often a line has hit in past matches. What to make of that is up to you.

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