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Brasileirão hot lines

18 hot lines for 6 matches on Saturday 24 October.

  1. Corinthians over 2.5 saves — Vasco da Gama v Corinthians: hit in 20 of Vasco da Gama’s last 20 home games, against 58% of Brasileirão games.
  2. Athletico Paranaense over 0.5 goals — Vitoria v Athletico Paranaense: hit in 9 of 9 meetings between the clubs, against 70% of Brasileirão games.
  3. Match over 4.5 saves — Vitoria v Athletico Paranaense: hit in 9 of 9 meetings between the clubs, against 73% of Brasileirão games.
  4. Palmeiras under 3.5 cards — Palmeiras v Bragantino: hit in 19 of Palmeiras’ last 20 home games, against 75% of Brasileirão games.
  5. Match over 5.5 saves — Chapecoense v Fluminense: hit in 19 of Fluminense’s last 20 away games, against 58% of Brasileirão games.
  6. Vasco da Gama over 3.5 shots on target — Vasco da Gama v Corinthians: hit in 19 of Vasco da Gama’s last 20 home games, against 59% of Brasileirão games.
  7. Internacional over 10.5 shots — Internacional v Botafogo: hit in 19 of Internacional’s last 20 home games, against 65% of Brasileirão games.
  8. Match over 7.5 shots on target — Vasco da Gama v Corinthians: hit in 18 of Vasco da Gama’s last 20 home games, against 62% of Brasileirão games.
  9. Match over 7.5 shots on target — Chapecoense v Fluminense: hit in 18 of Fluminense’s last 20 away games, against 62% of Brasileirão games.
  10. Palmeiras over 12.5 shots — Palmeiras v Bragantino: hit in 18 of Palmeiras’ last 20 home games, against 49% of Brasileirão games.
  11. Vasco da Gama over 12.5 shots — Vasco da Gama v Corinthians: hit in 18 of Vasco da Gama’s last 20 home games, against 49% of Brasileirão games.
  12. Athletico Paranaense over 0.5 first-half goals — Vitoria v Athletico Paranaense: hit in 8 of 9 meetings between the clubs, against 42% of Brasileirão games.
  13. Match over 7.5 shots on target — Vitoria v Athletico Paranaense: hit in 8 of 9 meetings between the clubs, against 62% of Brasileirão games.
  14. Athletico Paranaense over 3.5 shots on target — Vitoria v Athletico Paranaense: hit in 8 of 9 meetings between the clubs, against 59% of Brasileirão games.
  15. Fluminense over 2.5 saves — Chapecoense v Fluminense: hit in 17 of Fluminense’s last 20 away games, against 58% of Brasileirão games.
  16. Palmeiras most corners — Palmeiras v Bragantino: hit in 17 of Palmeiras’ last 20 home games, against 57% of Brasileirão games.
  17. Match over 24.5 shots — Palmeiras v Bragantino: hit in 17 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 56% of Brasileirão games.
  18. Fluminense under 5.5 corners — Chapecoense v Fluminense: hit in 16 of Chapecoense’s last 20 home games, against 60% of Brasileirão games.

What a hot line is

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away. It shows what has happened, not what will.

On Saturday 24 October there are 18 hot lines across 6 Brasileirão matches. Each line is listed with how often it has hit and the league’s rate for comparison.

Questions

What is a hot line?

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away.

How are the lines ordered?

By hit rate first, so a line that hit every time comes before one that hit 17 of 20, then by price where one is listed, and then by how far above the league rate it sits.

Do hot lines predict anything?

No. They count how often a line has hit in past matches. What to make of that is up to you.

Brasileirão matches · Brasileirão stats by market