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Bundesliga hot lines

13 hot lines for 6 matches on Saturday 24 October.

  1. RB Leipzig over 3.5 shots on target — RB Leipzig v Elversberg: hit in 19 of RB Leipzig’s last 20 home games, against 64% of Bundesliga games.
  2. Augsburg under 5.5 corners — Augsburg v Union Berlin: hit in 13 of 14 meetings between the clubs, against 64% of Bundesliga games.
  3. Match over 22.5 shots — Augsburg v Union Berlin: hit in 13 of 14 meetings between the clubs, against 72% of Bundesliga games.
  4. Eintracht Frankfurt under 14.5 shots — Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt: hit in 22 of 24 meetings between the clubs, against 64% of Bundesliga games.
  5. Borussia Dortmund over 10.5 shots — Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt: hit in 22 of 24 meetings between the clubs, against 66% of Bundesliga games.
  6. Match under 4.5 cards — Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt: hit in 18 of Borussia Dortmund’s last 20 home games, against 63% of Bundesliga games.
  7. Borussia Dortmund most corners or level — Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt: hit in 18 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 63% of Bundesliga games.
  8. Borussia Dortmund under 3.5 saves — Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt: hit in 18 of Borussia Dortmund’s last 20 home games, against 63% of Bundesliga games.
  9. Match over 24.5 shots — Paderborn v Hamburg: hit in 18 of Paderborn’s last 20 home games, against 59% of Bundesliga games.
  10. Cologne over 3.5 shots on target — Cologne v Schalke: hit in 18 of Schalke’s last 20 away games, against 64% of Bundesliga games.
  11. Borussia Dortmund over 3.5 shots on target — Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt: hit in 21 of 24 meetings between the clubs, against 64% of Bundesliga games.
  12. Borussia Dortmund most shots or level — Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt: hit in 21 of 24 meetings between the clubs, against 52% of Bundesliga games.
  13. Union Berlin over 10.5 shots — Augsburg v Union Berlin: hit in 12 of 14 meetings between the clubs, against 66% of Bundesliga games.

What a hot line is

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away. It shows what has happened, not what will.

On Saturday 24 October there are 13 hot lines across 6 Bundesliga matches. Each line is listed with how often it has hit and the league’s rate for comparison.

Questions

What is a hot line?

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away.

How are the lines ordered?

By hit rate first, so a line that hit every time comes before one that hit 17 of 20, then by price where one is listed, and then by how far above the league rate it sits.

Do hot lines predict anything?

No. They count how often a line has hit in past matches. What to make of that is up to you.

Bundesliga matches · Bundesliga stats by market