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Champions League hot lines

12 hot lines for 9 matches on Tuesday 3 November.

  1. Atletico Madrid over 0.5 goals — Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich: hit in 20 of Atletico Madrid’s last 20 home games, against 73% of Champions League games.
  2. Match over 0.5 first-half goals — Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich: hit in 20 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 74% of Champions League games.
  3. Match under 11.5 shots on target — Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP: hit in 20 of Sporting CP’s last 20 away games, against 72% of Champions League games.
  4. Sporting CP under 4.5 saves — Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP: hit in 20 of Shakhtar Donetsk’s last 20 home games, against 75% of Champions League games.
  5. Match over 2.5 goals — Barcelona v Aston Villa: hit in 19 of Barcelona’s last 20 home games, against 60% of Champions League games.
  6. Shakhtar Donetsk under 5.5 shots on target — Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP: hit in 18 of Shakhtar Donetsk’s last 20 home games, against 64% of Champions League games.
  7. Sporting CP under 5.5 shots on target — Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP: hit in 18 of Sporting CP’s last 20 away games, against 64% of Champions League games.
  8. Barcelona over 10.5 shots — Barcelona v Aston Villa: hit in 18 of Barcelona’s last 20 home games, against 64% of Champions League games.
  9. Shakhtar Donetsk under 12.5 shots — Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP: hit in 17 of Shakhtar Donetsk’s last 20 home games, against 50% of Champions League games.
  10. Sporting CP under 12.5 shots — Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP: hit in 17 of Sporting CP’s last 20 away games, against 50% of Champions League games.
  11. Barcelona most shots on target — Barcelona v Aston Villa: hit in 17 of Barcelona’s last 20 home games, against 57% of Champions League games.
  12. Match over 2.5 goals — Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich: hit in 16 of Atletico Madrid’s last 20 home games, against 60% of Champions League games.

What a hot line is

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away. It shows what has happened, not what will.

On Tuesday 3 November there are 12 hot lines across 9 Champions League matches. Each line is listed with how often it has hit and the league’s rate for comparison.

Questions

What is a hot line?

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away.

How are the lines ordered?

By hit rate first, so a line that hit every time comes before one that hit 17 of 20, then by price where one is listed, and then by how far above the league rate it sits.

Do hot lines predict anything?

No. They count how often a line has hit in past matches. What to make of that is up to you.

Champions League matches · Champions League stats by market