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Championship hot lines

27 hot lines for 11 matches on Saturday 24 October.

  1. Watford under 14.5 shots — Wolves v Watford: hit in 8 of 8 meetings between the clubs, against 67% of Championship games.
  2. Match over 4.5 saves — West Ham v Southampton: hit in 6 of 6 meetings between the clubs, against 71% of Championship games.
  3. Norwich over 0.5 cards — Charlton v Norwich: hit in 20 of Charlton’s last 20 home games, against 84% of Championship games.
  4. Cardiff over 2.5 shots on target — Cardiff v Birmingham: hit in 20 of Cardiff’s last 20 home games, against 74% of Championship games.
  5. Match over 0.5 first-half goals — Sheffield United v Derby: hit in 19 of Derby’s last 20 away games, against 68% of Championship games.
  6. Lincoln over 0.5 goals — Lincoln v Burnley: hit in 19 of Lincoln’s last 20 home games, against 73% of Championship games.
  7. Wrexham under 14.5 shots — Blackburn v Wrexham: hit in 19 of Wrexham’s last 20 away games, against 70% of Championship games.
  8. Cardiff win or draw — Cardiff v Birmingham: hit in 18 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 69% of Championship games.
  9. Charlton under 1.5 goals — Charlton v Norwich: hit in 18 of Charlton’s last 20 home games, against 64% of Championship games.
  10. Derby over 1.5 cards — Sheffield United v Derby: hit in 18 of Sheffield United’s last 20 home games, against 55% of Championship games.
  11. Wrexham under 4.5 shots on target — Blackburn v Wrexham: hit in 18 of Blackburn’s last 20 home games, against 63% of Championship games.
  12. Match over 2.5 cards — Portsmouth v Millwall: hit in 18 of Portsmouth’s last 20 home games, against 69% of Championship games.
  13. Match over 3.5 cards — Wolves v Watford: hit in 7 of 8 meetings between the clubs, against 50% of Championship games.
  14. Wolves most corners — Wolves v Watford: hit in 7 of 8 meetings between the clubs, against 45% of Championship games.
  15. Watford under 4.5 shots on target — Wolves v Watford: hit in 7 of 8 meetings between the clubs, against 58% of Championship games.
  16. Wolves most corners or level — Wolves v Watford: hit in 7 of 8 meetings between the clubs, against 55% of Championship games.
  17. Preston under 1.5 goals — Preston v West Brom: hit in 12 of 14 meetings between the clubs, against 64% of Championship games.
  18. Match over 2.5 cards — Stoke v Bristol City: hit in 17 of Stoke’s last 20 home games, against 69% of Championship games.
  19. Match under 11.5 corners — QPR v Swansea: hit in 17 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 66% of Championship games.
  20. Match over 7.5 shots on target — West Ham v Southampton: hit in 17 of Southampton’s last 20 away games, against 55% of Championship games.
  21. Match over 24.5 shots — West Ham v Southampton: hit in 17 of Southampton’s last 20 away games, against 50% of Championship games.
  22. Lincoln over 12.5 shots — Lincoln v Burnley: hit in 17 of Lincoln’s last 20 home games, against 47% of Championship games.
  23. Lincoln over 3.5 shots on target — Lincoln v Burnley: hit in 17 of Lincoln’s last 20 home games, against 56% of Championship games.
  24. Portsmouth over 10.5 shots — Portsmouth v Millwall: hit in 17 of Portsmouth’s last 20 home games, against 62% of Championship games.
  25. Birmingham over 2.5 saves — Cardiff v Birmingham: hit in 5 of 6 meetings between the clubs, against 49% of Championship games.
  26. Cardiff over 10.5 shots — Cardiff v Birmingham: hit in 15 of 18 meetings between the clubs, against 62% of Championship games.
  27. Millwall over 1.5 cards — Portsmouth v Millwall: hit in 16 of Portsmouth’s last 20 home games, against 55% of Championship games.

What a hot line is

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away. It shows what has happened, not what will.

On Saturday 24 October there are 27 hot lines across 11 Championship matches. Each line is listed with how often it has hit and the league’s rate for comparison.

Questions

What is a hot line?

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away.

How are the lines ordered?

By hit rate first, so a line that hit every time comes before one that hit 17 of 20, then by price where one is listed, and then by how far above the league rate it sits.

Do hot lines predict anything?

No. They count how often a line has hit in past matches. What to make of that is up to you.

Championship matches · Championship stats by market