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Europa League hot lines

14 hot lines for 18 matches on Thursday 5 November.

  1. Bayer Leverkusen most shots or level — Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille: hit in 20 of Bayer Leverkusen’s last 20 home games, against 65% of Europa League games.
  2. Bayer Leverkusen most shots — Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille: hit in 19 of Bayer Leverkusen’s last 20 home games, against 61% of Europa League games.
  3. Bayer Leverkusen most shots on target or level — Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille: hit in 19 of Bayer Leverkusen’s last 20 home games, against 65% of Europa League games.
  4. Rennes over 3.5 corners — Rennes v Olympiacos: hit in 18 of Olympiacos’ last 20 away games, against 63% of Europa League games.
  5. AZ Alkmaar over 3.5 corners — AZ Alkmaar v Juventus: hit in 18 of AZ Alkmaar’s last 20 home games, against 63% of Europa League games.
  6. Match over 7.5 shots on target — Milan v Ferencvaros: hit in 18 of Ferencvaros’ last 20 away games, against 63% of Europa League games.
  7. Lillestrom over 10.5 shots — Lillestrom v Plzen: hit in 16 of Plzen’s last 18 away games, against 61% of Europa League games.
  8. Bayer Leverkusen over 14.5 shots — Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille: hit in 17 of Bayer Leverkusen’s last 20 home games, against 32% of Europa League games.
  9. Marseille over 2.5 saves — Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille: hit in 17 of Bayer Leverkusen’s last 20 home games, against 54% of Europa League games.
  10. Bayer Leverkusen most shots on target — Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille: hit in 17 of Bayer Leverkusen’s last 20 home games, against 56% of Europa League games.
  11. Bayer Leverkusen most corners — Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille: hit in 17 of Bayer Leverkusen’s last 20 home games, against 56% of Europa League games.
  12. Milan over 3.5 shots on target — Milan v Ferencvaros: hit in 17 of Ferencvaros’ last 20 away games, against 59% of Europa League games.
  13. Anderlecht over 3.5 shots on target — Anderlecht v Salzburg: hit in 13 of Anderlecht’s last 16 home games, against 59% of Europa League games.
  14. Bayer Leverkusen over 3.5 shots on target — Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille: hit in 13 of Bayer Leverkusen’s last 16 home games, against 59% of Europa League games.

What a hot line is

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away. It shows what has happened, not what will.

On Thursday 5 November there are 14 hot lines across 18 Europa League matches. Each line is listed with how often it has hit and the league’s rate for comparison.

Questions

What is a hot line?

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away.

How are the lines ordered?

By hit rate first, so a line that hit every time comes before one that hit 17 of 20, then by price where one is listed, and then by how far above the league rate it sits.

Do hot lines predict anything?

No. They count how often a line has hit in past matches. What to make of that is up to you.

Europa League matches · Europa League stats by market