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League One hot lines

24 hot lines for 12 matches on Saturday 24 October.

  1. Match under 3.5 goals — Huddersfield v Wigan: hit in 12 of 12 meetings between the clubs, against 75% of League One games.
  2. Blackpool under 3.5 saves — Blackpool v Mansfield: hit in 4 of 4 meetings between the clubs, against 71% of League One games.
  3. Cambridge under 3.5 saves — Cambridge v Plymouth: hit in 4 of 4 meetings between the clubs, against 71% of League One games.
  4. Burton over 0.5 cards — Burton v Leyton Orient: hit in 20 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 83% of League One games.
  5. Plymouth over 8.5 shots — Cambridge v Plymouth: hit in 12 of 12 meetings between the clubs, against 73% of League One games.
  6. Stevenage over 2.5 shots on target — Stevenage v MK Dons: hit in 20 of Stevenage’s last 20 home games, against 74% of League One games.
  7. Luton most shots on target or level — Luton v Leicester: hit in 19 of Luton’s last 20 home games, against 64% of League One games.
  8. Plymouth over 3.5 corners — Cambridge v Plymouth: hit in 11 of 12 meetings between the clubs, against 69% of League One games.
  9. Match over 2.5 cards — Huddersfield v Wigan: hit in 11 of 12 meetings between the clubs, against 69% of League One games.
  10. AFC Wimbledon under 12.5 shots — AFC Wimbledon v Wycombe: hit in 10 of 11 meetings between the clubs, against 62% of League One games.
  11. Match over 8.5 corners — AFC Wimbledon v Wycombe: hit in 18 of AFC Wimbledon’s last 20 home games, against 69% of League One games.
  12. Match under 3.5 goals — Oxford v Bradford: hit in 18 of Oxford’s last 20 home games, against 75% of League One games.
  13. Plymouth over 10.5 shots — Cambridge v Plymouth: hit in 18 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 55% of League One games.
  14. Burton over 8.5 shots — Burton v Leyton Orient: hit in 18 of Burton’s last 20 home games, against 73% of League One games.
  15. Match over 7.5 shots on target — Bromley v Peterboro: hit in 18 of Peterboro’s last 20 away games, against 57% of League One games.
  16. Cambridge most corners or level — Cambridge v Plymouth: hit in 18 of Cambridge’s last 20 home games, against 63% of League One games.
  17. AFC Wimbledon over 4.5 corners — AFC Wimbledon v Wycombe: hit in 17 of AFC Wimbledon’s last 20 home games, against 55% of League One games.
  18. Cambridge most corners — Cambridge v Plymouth: hit in 17 of Cambridge’s last 20 home games, against 53% of League One games.
  19. Match over 9.5 corners — Cambridge v Plymouth: hit in 17 of Plymouth’s last 20 away games, against 58% of League One games.
  20. Bradford under 4.5 shots on target — Oxford v Bradford: hit in 17 of Oxford’s last 20 home games, against 60% of League One games.
  21. Match over 22.5 shots — Bromley v Peterboro: hit in 17 of Peterboro’s last 20 away games, against 53% of League One games.
  22. Wigan over 1.5 cards — Huddersfield v Wigan: hit in 17 of Huddersfield’s last 20 home games, against 53% of League One games.
  23. Luton over 10.5 shots — Luton v Leicester: hit in 17 of Luton’s last 20 home games, against 55% of League One games.
  24. Match under 8.5 shots on target — Stevenage v MK Dons: hit in 17 of Stevenage’s last 20 home games, against 55% of League One games.

What a hot line is

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away. It shows what has happened, not what will.

On Saturday 24 October there are 24 hot lines across 12 League One matches. Each line is listed with how often it has hit and the league’s rate for comparison.

Questions

What is a hot line?

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away.

How are the lines ordered?

By hit rate first, so a line that hit every time comes before one that hit 17 of 20, then by price where one is listed, and then by how far above the league rate it sits.

Do hot lines predict anything?

No. They count how often a line has hit in past matches. What to make of that is up to you.

League One matches · League One stats by market