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League Two hot lines

27 hot lines for 11 matches on Saturday 24 October.

  1. Crewe over 1.5 saves — Chesterfield v Crewe: hit in 4 of 4 meetings between the clubs, against 71% of League Two games.
  2. Newport County under 3.5 saves — Cheltenham v Newport County: hit in 20 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 71% of League Two games.
  3. Swindon over 8.5 shots — Bristol Rvs v Swindon: hit in 8 of 8 meetings between the clubs, against 73% of League Two games.
  4. Crewe under 2.5 cards — Chesterfield v Crewe: hit in 10 of 10 meetings between the clubs, against 73% of League Two games.
  5. Rotherham under 5.5 shots on target — Rotherham v Shrewsbury: hit in 8 of 8 meetings between the clubs, against 74% of League Two games.
  6. Port Vale under 5.5 shots on target — York v Port Vale: hit in 20 of Port Vale’s last 20 away games, against 75% of League Two games.
  7. Exeter over 8.5 shots — Exeter v Fleetwood Town: hit in 19 of Exeter’s last 20 home games, against 73% of League Two games.
  8. Match over 2.5 cards — Rotherham v Shrewsbury: hit in 19 of Rotherham’s last 20 home games, against 67% of League Two games.
  9. Match under 9.5 shots on target — York v Port Vale: hit in 19 of Port Vale’s last 20 away games, against 68% of League Two games.
  10. Match under 10.5 corners — Rotherham v Shrewsbury: hit in 18 of Shrewsbury’s last 20 away games, against 58% of League Two games.
  11. Match over 0.5 first-half goals — Chesterfield v Crewe: hit in 9 of 10 meetings between the clubs, against 68% of League Two games.
  12. Match under 9.5 shots on target — Gillingham v Grimsby: hit in 18 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 70% of League Two games.
  13. Grimsby over 1.5 saves — Gillingham v Grimsby: hit in 18 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 71% of League Two games.
  14. Match over 9.5 corners — Bristol Rvs v Swindon: hit in 7 of 8 meetings between the clubs, against 56% of League Two games.
  15. Gillingham under 5.5 corners — Gillingham v Grimsby: hit in 7 of 8 meetings between the clubs, against 61% of League Two games.
  16. Bristol Rvs over 1.5 cards — Bristol Rvs v Swindon: hit in 7 of 8 meetings between the clubs, against 53% of League Two games.
  17. Gillingham under 4.5 shots on target — Gillingham v Grimsby: hit in 7 of 8 meetings between the clubs, against 62% of League Two games.
  18. Match over 20.5 shots — Crawley Town v Tranmere: hit in 17 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 64% of League Two games.
  19. Chesterfield over 10.5 shots — Chesterfield v Crewe: hit in 17 of Chesterfield’s last 20 home games, against 54% of League Two games.
  20. Match over 20.5 shots — Barnet v Oldham: hit in 17 of Barnet’s last 20 home games, against 64% of League Two games.
  21. Match over 20.5 shots — Rochdale v Accrington: hit in 17 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 64% of League Two games.
  22. Match over 22.5 shots — Bristol Rvs v Swindon: hit in 17 of Swindon’s last 20 away games, against 51% of League Two games.
  23. Match over 22.5 shots — Exeter v Fleetwood Town: hit in 17 of Fleetwood Town’s last 20 away games, against 51% of League Two games.
  24. Colchester over 1.5 cards — Northampton v Colchester: hit in 17 of Northampton’s last 20 home games, against 53% of League Two games.
  25. Bristol Rvs over 10.5 shots — Bristol Rvs v Swindon: hit in 17 of Swindon’s last 20 away games, against 54% of League Two games.
  26. Fleetwood Town over 10.5 shots — Exeter v Fleetwood Town: hit in 17 of Fleetwood Town’s last 20 away games, against 54% of League Two games.
  27. Accrington under 1.5 goals — Rochdale v Accrington: hit in 5 of 6 meetings between the clubs, against 63% of League Two games.

What a hot line is

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away. It shows what has happened, not what will.

On Saturday 24 October there are 27 hot lines across 11 League Two matches. Each line is listed with how often it has hit and the league’s rate for comparison.

Questions

What is a hot line?

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away.

How are the lines ordered?

By hit rate first, so a line that hit every time comes before one that hit 17 of 20, then by price where one is listed, and then by how far above the league rate it sits.

Do hot lines predict anything?

No. They count how often a line has hit in past matches. What to make of that is up to you.

League Two matches · League Two stats by market