Premier League hot lines

7 hot lines for 4 matches on Saturday 24 October.

Man City over 10.5 shots — Aston Villa v Man City: hit in 17 of 18 meetings between the clubs, against 62% of Premier League games.
Arsenal over 10.5 shots — Arsenal v Everton: hit in 18 of Arsenal’s last 20 home games, against 62% of Premier League games.
Arsenal under 3.5 saves — Arsenal v Everton: hit in 9 of 10 meetings between the clubs, against 64% of Premier League games.
Match under 10.5 corners — Coventry v Fulham: hit in 17 of Coventry’s last 20 home games, against 55% of Premier League games.
Chelsea over 10.5 shots — Chelsea v Tottenham: hit in 17 of Chelsea’s last 20 home games, against 62% of Premier League games.
Aston Villa under 5.5 corners — Aston Villa v Man City: hit in 15 of 18 meetings between the clubs, against 59% of Premier League games.
Chelsea under 3.5 saves — Chelsea v Tottenham: hit in 16 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 64% of Premier League games.

What a hot line is

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away. It shows what has happened, not what will.

On Saturday 24 October there are 7 hot lines across 4 Premier League matches. Each line is listed with how often it has hit and the league’s rate for comparison.

Questions

What is a hot line?

How are the lines ordered?

By hit rate first, so a line that hit every time comes before one that hit 17 of 20, then by price where one is listed, and then by how far above the league rate it sits.

Do hot lines predict anything?

No. They count how often a line has hit in past matches. What to make of that is up to you.