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Serie A hot lines

20 hot lines for 4 matches on Saturday 24 October.

  1. Parma under 5.5 shots on target — Lazio v Parma: hit in 12 of 12 meetings between the clubs, against 71% of Serie A games.
  2. Napoli under 2.5 cards — Napoli v Roma: hit in 19 of Napoli’s last 20 home games, against 59% of Serie A games.
  3. Como over 10.5 shots — Como v Sassuolo: hit in 19 of Como’s last 20 home games, against 65% of Serie A games.
  4. Como most shots or level — Como v Sassuolo: hit in 19 of Como’s last 20 home games, against 62% of Serie A games.
  5. Cagliari under 14.5 shots — Cagliari v Bologna: hit in 17 of 18 meetings between the clubs, against 65% of Serie A games.
  6. Napoli under 3.5 saves — Napoli v Roma: hit in 20 of 22 meetings between the clubs, against 66% of Serie A games.
  7. Parma over 2.5 saves — Lazio v Parma: hit in 9 of 10 meetings between the clubs, against 54% of Serie A games.
  8. Match under 4.5 cards — Napoli v Roma: hit in 18 of Napoli’s last 20 home games, against 49% of Serie A games.
  9. Match under 10.5 corners — Lazio v Parma: hit in 18 of Lazio’s last 20 home games, against 58% of Serie A games.
  10. Napoli most shots on target or level — Napoli v Roma: hit in 18 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 63% of Serie A games.
  11. Como most shots on target or level — Como v Sassuolo: hit in 18 of Como’s last 20 home games, against 63% of Serie A games.
  12. Napoli most corners or level — Napoli v Roma: hit in 18 of Napoli’s last 20 home games, against 63% of Serie A games.
  13. Lazio under 2.5 cards — Lazio v Parma: hit in 17 of Parma’s last 20 away games, against 59% of Serie A games.
  14. Roma under 4.5 shots on target — Napoli v Roma: hit in 17 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 58% of Serie A games.
  15. Parma under 4.5 shots on target — Lazio v Parma: hit in 17 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 58% of Serie A games.
  16. Bologna under 3.5 saves — Cagliari v Bologna: hit in 17 of 20 meetings between the clubs, against 66% of Serie A games.
  17. Como over 3.5 shots on target — Como v Sassuolo: hit in 17 of Como’s last 20 home games, against 59% of Serie A games.
  18. Parma under 12.5 shots — Lazio v Parma: hit in 10 of 12 meetings between the clubs, against 50% of Serie A games.
  19. Match under 26.5 shots — Cagliari v Bologna: hit in 16 of Cagliari’s last 20 home games, against 55% of Serie A games.
  20. Como over 12.5 shots — Como v Sassuolo: hit in 16 of Como’s last 20 home games, against 50% of Serie A games.

What a hot line is

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away. It shows what has happened, not what will.

On Saturday 24 October there are 20 hot lines across 4 Serie A matches. Each line is listed with how often it has hit and the league’s rate for comparison.

Questions

What is a hot line?

A hot line is one that has hit in at least 85% of a club’s recent games, or in at least 80% when two samples agree, and that sits well above the league’s rate. The samples are the clubs’ head-to-head meetings and each club’s last 20 games at home or away.

How are the lines ordered?

By hit rate first, so a line that hit every time comes before one that hit 17 of 20, then by price where one is listed, and then by how far above the league rate it sits.

Do hot lines predict anything?

No. They count how often a line has hit in past matches. What to make of that is up to you.

Serie A matches · Serie A stats by market